MONTHLY BOND LETTER

Donald Trump's election and the possibility of a Republican sweep in Congress could alter the trajectory of monetary policy in the US. We cover this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.

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Inflation is under better control, and central banks have now shifted their discussions to the risks of a slowdown in the economy and the labour market. We cover these and other topics in our Montlhy Bone Letter.

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The Federal Reserve continues to push back the date when it judges that monetary easing will be required, given the risks associated with a resurgence in inflation. We cover this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.

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The more fragile Canadian economy could lead the Bank of Canada to take a different path from that of the Federal Reserve soon. We cover this subject and others in this edition of the Monthly.

Investors who were betting on a hard landing for the U.S. economy now expect a soft landing and perhaps no landing at all. We cover this subject and others in this edition of the Monthly.

The monetary policy transition period is beginning. Faced with the slowdown in inflation, the belligerent tone of central banks has given way to more flexibility. Some are maintaining the status quo, but others are talking about declines in 2024. We deal with this subject and others in this edition of the Monthly.

Investors expect rates to fall in the first half of next year, as they believe a decline begins once the peak is reached. For central banks, the status quo once at the top is an essential step towards long-term price stability. We address this subject and others in this edition of the Bond Monthly

There may still be some slight adjustments to make, but the period of rising key rates is coming to an end. Have central banks raised rates too much? Will they make a U-turn soon? We cover this subject and others in this edition of the Monthly.

Over the past year, Canada's population grew by more than 1.2 million or 3.1%, mainly due to immigration. What are the consequences of this growth on our economy and monetary policy? We cover this subject and others in this edition of the Monthly.

Jobs and growth are now at the forefront of central banks' risk assessments. We cover this and other topics in our Monthly Bond Letter.

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The volatility observed in financial markets at the beginning of August is more the result of a reversal of carry trades in Japan than of a US economy on the brink of collapse. We cover this and others in our Monthly Bond Letter.​

After two years of tightening financial conditions to combat inflation, it is time for some central banks to reverse course. This is particularly the case of the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank. We cover this subject and others in the most recent edition of the Monthly Bond.

Transport and parcel shipping companies can attest that the last stage of delivery, the last kilometers before the final destination, are the most expensive and complex. This is also the case for central banks with their inflation targets. We cover this subject and others in this edition of the Monthly.

Central banks believe that inflation and employment risks are increasingly balanced, but it is still too early to ease financial conditions. We cover this subject and others in this edition of the Monthly.

The performance of the bond market in November is worthy of an episode of crisis, yet no one is talking about a recession soon in the United States. We deal with subjects and others in this edition of the Monthly.

Between raising rates further and risking a recession and keeping them high for a prolonged period, central banks preferred the second option. What are the consequences of this decision? We cover this subject and others in this edition of the Monthly.

The recession that everyone expected in 2023 continues to be postponed, as the economy proves more resilient than expected. We cover this subject and others in this edition of the Monthly.